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Villarrobledo vs Calvo Sotelo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Villarrobledo
Villarrobledo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Calvo Sotelo
Calvo Sotelo
A. S. Solcan 85'
Alvarito 22'
9/14/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 2Estadio Nuestra Señora de la Caridad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Villarrobledo40%
×Draw30%
Calvo Sotelo30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarrobledo
1.12
Calvo Sotelo
0.92

Villarrobledo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 92 away

creates per match

Villarrobledo
1.15
Calvo Sotelo
1.00

allows per match

Villarrobledo
0.84
Calvo Sotelo
1.09

finishing

Villarrobledo+0.00on par
Calvo Sotelo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarrobledo ↓

Calvo Sotelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Villarrobledo or draw
70%
Villarrobledo or Calvo Sotelo
70%
Draw or Calvo Sotelo
60%

Winning margin

Villarrobledo wins by 2+
17%
Calvo Sotelo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Villarrobledo 1+ goals
67%
Villarrobledo 2+ goals
31%
Villarrobledo 3+ goals
10%
Calvo Sotelo 1+ goals
60%
Calvo Sotelo 2+ goals
23%
Calvo Sotelo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Villarrobledo (draw refunded)
57%
Calvo Sotelo (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarrobledo at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.84 · 82 matches

Calvo Sotelo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.09 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarrobledo attack 1.15 + Calvo Sotelo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.12

Calvo Sotelo attack 1.00 + Villarrobledo defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Villarrobledo scores more
40%
level
30%
Calvo Sotelo scores more
30%

Villarrobledo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Villarrobledo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
Alvarito
85'
A. S. Solcan
Villarrobledo
Calvo
Armindo Rubbin
Manager: Armindo Rubbin
Javi Sánchez
Manager: Javi Sánchez

Match Recap: Villarrobledo vs Calvo Sotelo

Villarrobledo and Calvo Sotelo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on September 14, 2025.

Goals: Alvarito (22'), A. S. Solcan (85').

The match was played at Estadio Nuestra Señora de la Caridad in Villarrobledo.