Villarreal W 0–3 Real Betis W: Result & Stats

Villarreal W

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Real Betis W

11/6/2022

Primera División Femenina · Round 8Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Villarreal W34%

×Draw23%

Real Betis W42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villarreal WExpected goals in this matchReal Betis W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.69

Villarreal W

1.50

Real Betis W

1.69

Real Betis W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 104 away

0.89

creates per match

1.03

2.36

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Villarreal W

0.89

Real Betis W

1.03

allows per match

Villarreal W

2.36

Real Betis W

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villarreal W+0.00on par

Real Betis W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal W ↓

Real Betis W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Villarreal W or draw

58%

Villarreal W or Real Betis W

77%

Draw or Real Betis W

66%

Winning margin

Villarreal W wins by 2+

16%

Real Betis W wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Villarreal W 1+ goals

78%

Villarreal W 2+ goals

44%

Villarreal W 3+ goals

19%

Real Betis W 1+ goals

82%

Real Betis W 2+ goals

50%

Real Betis W 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Villarreal W (draw refunded)

45%

Real Betis W (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal W at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

Real Betis W away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.10 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal W attack 0.89 + Real Betis W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.50

Real Betis W attack 1.03 + Villarreal W defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Villarreal W scores more

34%

level

23%

Real Betis W scores more

42%

Real Betis W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Betis W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff