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Villarreal W vs Rayo Vallecano W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Villarreal W
Villarreal W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rayo Vallecano W
Rayo Vallecano W
2/6/2022Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 21Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Villarreal W36%
×Draw24%
Rayo Vallecano W40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal W
1.50
Rayo Vallecano W
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 58 away

creates per match

Villarreal W
0.89
Rayo Vallecano W
0.81

allows per match

Villarreal W
2.36
Rayo Vallecano W
2.10

finishing

Villarreal W+0.00on par
Rayo Vallecano W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal W ↓

Rayo Vallecano W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Villarreal W or draw
60%
Villarreal W or Rayo Vallecano W
76%
Draw or Rayo Vallecano W
64%

Winning margin

Villarreal W wins by 2+
17%
Rayo Vallecano W wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Villarreal W 1+ goals
78%
Villarreal W 2+ goals
44%
Villarreal W 3+ goals
19%
Rayo Vallecano W 1+ goals
79%
Rayo Vallecano W 2+ goals
47%
Rayo Vallecano W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Villarreal W (draw refunded)
48%
Rayo Vallecano W (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal W at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

Rayo Vallecano W away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.10 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal W attack 0.89 + Rayo Vallecano W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rayo Vallecano W attack 0.81 + Villarreal W defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Villarreal W scores more
36%
level
24%
Rayo Vallecano W scores more
40%

Rayo Vallecano W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Villarreal W 1–0 Rayo Vallecano W

Villarreal W beat Rayo Vallecano W 1-0 in Primera División Femenina on February 6, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal in Villarreal.