Villarreal W 2–2 FC Levante Badalona W

Villarreal W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

FC Levante Badalona W

María Llompart 47'

Bicho 25'

J. Martínez 90+7' (pen)

Cristina Baudet 82'

12/10/2023

Primera División Femenina · Round 11Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Villarreal W34%

×Draw24%

FC Levante Badalona W42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villarreal WExpected goals in this matchFC Levante Badalona W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.62

Villarreal W

1.42

FC Levante Badalona W

1.62

FC Levante Badalona W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

0.89

creates per match

0.88

2.36

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Villarreal W

0.89

FC Levante Badalona W

0.88

allows per match

Villarreal W

2.36

FC Levante Badalona W

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villarreal W+0.00on par

FC Levante Badalona W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal W ↓

FC Levante Badalona W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Villarreal W or draw

58%

Villarreal W or FC Levante Badalona W

76%

Draw or FC Levante Badalona W

66%

Winning margin

Villarreal W wins by 2+

15%

FC Levante Badalona W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Villarreal W 1+ goals

76%

Villarreal W 2+ goals

41%

Villarreal W 3+ goals

17%

FC Levante Badalona W 1+ goals

80%

FC Levante Badalona W 2+ goals

48%

FC Levante Badalona W 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Villarreal W (draw refunded)

44%

FC Levante Badalona W (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal W at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

FC Levante Badalona W away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.95 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal W attack 0.89 + FC Levante Badalona W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.42

FC Levante Badalona W attack 0.88 + Villarreal W defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Villarreal W scores more

34%

level

24%

FC Levante Badalona W scores more

42%

FC Levante Badalona W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Levante Badalona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

María Llompart

Villarreal W · M

7.9

Match Events

13'

Yasmin Katie Mrabet

25'

Bicho↳ Fatou Kanteh

46'

B. Benera← Nerea Carmona

46'

Tang Jiali← A. Frisbie

46'

Cristina Baudet← D. Čonč

46'

Laura Martínez← Y. MRabet

47'

María Llompart↳ K. McKenna

63'

Claudia Iglesias Bicho

69'

Irina Uribe

72'

Tere Morató← María Llompart

72'

Pilar Garrote← Irina Uribe

73'

F. Lara← Fatou Kanteh

80'

82'

87'

88'

89'

90+2'

Lucía Romero← K. McKenna

90+7'

J. MartínezPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VillarrealFC

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots13

0Corners5

16Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots13

4On Target4

3Off Target3

0Blocked6

4Inside Box5

3Outside Box8

Passing

48%Possession52%

364Total Passes378

255Accurate Passes292

70%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

4Offsides3