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Villarreal W vs Barcelona W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Villarreal W
Villarreal W
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Barcelona W
Barcelona W
11/11/2023Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 8Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Villarreal W5%
×Draw11%
Barcelona W85%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal W
0.61
Barcelona W
3.03

Barcelona W creates 397% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 119 away

creates per match

Villarreal W
0.89
Barcelona W
3.70

allows per match

Villarreal W
2.36
Barcelona W
0.34

finishing

Villarreal W+0.00on par
Barcelona W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal W ↓

Barcelona W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–212%
0–313%
0–410%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (13%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Villarreal W or draw
15%
Villarreal W or Barcelona W
89%
Draw or Barcelona W
95%

Winning margin

Villarreal W wins by 2+
1%
Barcelona W wins by 2+
66%

Team goals

Villarreal W 1+ goals
46%
Villarreal W 2+ goals
13%
Villarreal W 3+ goals
2%
Barcelona W 1+ goals
95%
Barcelona W 2+ goals
80%
Barcelona W 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Villarreal W (draw refunded)
5%
Barcelona W (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal W at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

Barcelona W away — creates 3.70, concedes 0.34 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal W attack 0.89 + Barcelona W defence 0.34 → ÷2 → 0.61

Barcelona W attack 3.70 + Villarreal W defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 3.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Villarreal W scores more
5%
level
11%
Barcelona W scores more
85%

Barcelona W at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Villarreal W 0–6 Barcelona W

Barcelona W beat Villarreal W 6-0 in Primera División Femenina on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal in Villarreal.