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Villarreal W vs Athletic Club W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Villarreal W
Villarreal W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Athletic Club W
Athletic Club W
3/26/2022Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 25Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Villarreal W26%
×Draw23%
Athletic Club W50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal W
1.22
Athletic Club W
1.78

Athletic Club W creates 46% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 120 away

creates per match

Villarreal W
0.89
Athletic Club W
1.21

allows per match

Villarreal W
2.36
Athletic Club W
1.55

finishing

Villarreal W+0.00on par
Athletic Club W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal W ↓

Athletic Club W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Villarreal W or draw
50%
Villarreal W or Athletic Club W
77%
Draw or Athletic Club W
74%

Winning margin

Villarreal W wins by 2+
11%
Athletic Club W wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Villarreal W 1+ goals
70%
Villarreal W 2+ goals
34%
Villarreal W 3+ goals
12%
Athletic Club W 1+ goals
83%
Athletic Club W 2+ goals
53%
Athletic Club W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Villarreal W (draw refunded)
34%
Athletic Club W (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal W at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

Athletic Club W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal W attack 0.89 + Athletic Club W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.22

Athletic Club W attack 1.21 + Villarreal W defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Villarreal W scores more
26%
level
23%
Athletic Club W scores more
50%

Athletic Club W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Athletic Club W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Villarreal W 1–1 Athletic Club W

Villarreal W and Athletic Club W drew 1-1 in Primera División Femenina on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal in Villarreal.