Villarreal 2–1 Red Bull Salzburg: Result & Stats

Villarreal

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Red Bull Salzburg

Gerard Moreno 89' (pen), 40'

M. Berisha 17'

2/25/2021

UEFA Europa League · Round of 32Estadio de la Cerámica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Villarreal63%

×Draw19%

Red Bull Salzburg18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VillarrealExpected goals in this matchRed Bull Salzburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.16

Villarreal

2.35

Red Bull Salzburg

1.16

Villarreal creates 103% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.62

creates per match

1.46

0.85

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Villarreal

2.62

Red Bull Salzburg

1.46

allows per match

Villarreal

0.85

Red Bull Salzburg

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villarreal+0.00on par

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Villarreal or draw

82%

Villarreal or Red Bull Salzburg

81%

Draw or Red Bull Salzburg

37%

Winning margin

Villarreal wins by 2+

41%

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Villarreal 1+ goals

90%

Villarreal 2+ goals

68%

Villarreal 3+ goals

41%

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

69%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

32%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Villarreal (draw refunded)

78%

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal attack 2.62 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.35

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.46 + Villarreal defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Villarreal scores more

63%

level

19%

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

18%

Villarreal at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Villarreal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Gerard Moreno

Villarreal · F

8.2

Match Events

17'

M. Berisha↳ P. Daka

20'

Albert Vallci

40'

Gerard Moreno↳ Paco Alcácer

46'

M. Wöber← A. Vallci

53'

Enock Mwepu

55'

Patson Daka

59'

Zlatko JunuzovićGoal cancelled

60'

L. Sučić← B. Aaronson

60'

K. Adeyemi← A. Bernède

66'

S. Chukwueze← Paco Alcácer

66'

Moi Gómez← Pedraza

69'

Jaume Costa

80'

Karim Adeyemi

82'

J. Foyth← Jaume Costa

89'

Gerard MorenoPenalty

90'

Fer Niño← Gerard Moreno

90'

Álex Baena← Dani Parejo

90+2'

O. Solet← R. Kristensen

90+2'

A. Svoboda← P. Daka

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VillarrealRed

Overview

48%Possession52%

5Total Shots11

1Corners2

7Fouls17

Shots

5Total Shots11

4On Target2

1Off Target5

0Blocked4

2Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

444Total Passes474

342Accurate Passes374

77%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls17

1Yellow Cards4

4Offsides3