Villarreal 1–0 Girona: Result & Stats | La Liga

Villarreal

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Girona

Dani Parejo 90+10' (pen)

1/22/2023

La Liga · Round 18Estadio de la Cerámica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

Villarreal48%

×Draw24%

Girona28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VillarrealExpected goals in this matchGirona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.27

Villarreal

1.72

Girona

1.27

Villarreal creates 35% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 36 away

1.86

creates per match

1.27

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Villarreal

1.86

Girona

1.27

allows per match

Villarreal

1.27

Girona

1.57

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Villarreal+0.32scores more

Girona-0.19scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal ↓

Girona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Villarreal or draw

72%

Villarreal or Girona

76%

Draw or Girona

52%

Winning margin

Villarreal wins by 2+

26%

Girona wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Villarreal 1+ goals

82%

Villarreal 2+ goals

51%

Villarreal 3+ goals

25%

Girona 1+ goals

72%

Girona 2+ goals

36%

Girona 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Villarreal (draw refunded)

63%

Girona (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.27 · 39 matches

Girona away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.57 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal attack 1.86 + Girona defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.72

Girona attack 1.27 + Villarreal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Villarreal scores more

48%

level

24%

Girona scores more

28%

Villarreal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Villarreal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

P. Gazzaniga

Girona · G

8.7

Match Events

3'

18'

25'

32'

37'

40'

45+1'

61'

M. Fall← Jorge Cuenca

64'

V. Castellanos← C. Stuani

64'

Y. Herrera← Iván Martín

74'

Valery← Toni Villa

75'

Borja García← Aleix García

78'

Santiago Bueno

78'

Santiago Bueno

79'

Alejandro BaenaPenalty cancelled

81'

José Luis Morales← Yeremy Pino

81'

Manu Trigueros← É. Capoue

81'

Juanpe← Miguel Gutiérrez

86'

Diego Collado← S. Chukwueze

86'

Alberto Moreno← J. Mojica

90+6'

Alberto Moreno

90+9'

Juanpe

90+10'

Dani ParejoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VillarrealGirona

Overview

69%Possession31%

19Total Shots8

2.90Expected Goals (xG)0.56

3Corners2

21Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots8

9On Target1

9Off Target5

1Blocked2

10Inside Box6

9Outside Box2

Passing

69%Possession31%

608Total Passes263

536Accurate Passes189

88%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

21Fouls15

5Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides5