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Villarreal vs Atalanta — UEFA Champions League 2026

Villarreal
Villarreal
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Atalanta
Atalanta
9/14/2021UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 1Estadio de la Cerámica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Villarreal38%
×Draw23%
Atalanta39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal
1.65
Atalanta
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 17 away

creates per match

Villarreal
1.30
Atalanta
1.65

allows per match

Villarreal
1.70
Atalanta
2.00

finishing

Villarreal+0.00on par
Atalanta+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal ↓

Atalanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Villarreal or draw
61%
Villarreal or Atalanta
77%
Draw or Atalanta
62%

Winning margin

Villarreal wins by 2+
19%
Atalanta wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Villarreal 1+ goals
81%
Villarreal 2+ goals
49%
Villarreal 3+ goals
23%
Atalanta 1+ goals
81%
Atalanta 2+ goals
50%
Atalanta 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Villarreal (draw refunded)
49%
Atalanta (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal attack 1.30 + Atalanta defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Atalanta attack 1.65 + Villarreal defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Villarreal scores more
38%
level
23%
Atalanta scores more
39%

Atalanta at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villarreal vs Atalanta

Villarreal and Atalanta drew 2-2 in UEFA Champions League on September 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio de la Cerámica in Villarreal.