Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Villarreal III vs Villajoyosa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Villarreal III
Villarreal III
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Villajoyosa
Villajoyosa
1/2/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 19Ciudad Deportiva Pamesa Cerámica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Villarreal III58%
×Draw24%
Villajoyosa17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal III
1.64
Villajoyosa
0.76

Villarreal III creates 116% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 32 away

creates per match

Villarreal III
1.71
Villajoyosa
0.56

allows per match

Villarreal III
0.96
Villajoyosa
1.56

finishing

Villarreal III+0.00on par
Villajoyosa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal III ↓

Villajoyosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Villarreal III or draw
83%
Villarreal III or Villajoyosa
76%
Draw or Villajoyosa
42%

Winning margin

Villarreal III wins by 2+
32%
Villajoyosa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Villarreal III 1+ goals
81%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
49%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
23%
Villajoyosa 1+ goals
53%
Villajoyosa 2+ goals
18%
Villajoyosa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Villarreal III (draw refunded)
77%
Villajoyosa (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal III at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.96 · 112 matches

Villajoyosa away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal III attack 1.71 + Villajoyosa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.64

Villajoyosa attack 0.56 + Villarreal III defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Villarreal III scores more
58%
level
24%
Villajoyosa scores more
17%

Villarreal III at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Villarreal III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villarreal III vs Villajoyosa

Villarreal III beat Villajoyosa 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 2, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Pamesa Cerámica in Villarreal.