Villarreal III 4–1 Vall de Uxó: Result & Stats

Villarreal III

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Vall de Uxó

1/11/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 17Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Villarreal III50%

×Draw27%

Vall de Uxó24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villarreal IIIExpected goals in this matchVall de Uxó

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.91

Villarreal III

1.46

Vall de Uxó

0.91

Villarreal III creates 60% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 34 away

1.71

creates per match

0.85

0.96

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Villarreal III

1.71

Vall de Uxó

0.85

allows per match

Villarreal III

0.96

Vall de Uxó

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villarreal III+0.00on par

Vall de Uxó+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal III ↓

Vall de Uxó →

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Villarreal III or draw

76%

Villarreal III or Vall de Uxó

73%

Draw or Vall de Uxó

50%

Winning margin

Villarreal III wins by 2+

25%

Vall de Uxó wins by 2+

Team goals

Villarreal III 1+ goals

77%

Villarreal III 2+ goals

43%

Villarreal III 3+ goals

18%

Vall de Uxó 1+ goals

60%

Vall de Uxó 2+ goals

23%

Vall de Uxó 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Villarreal III (draw refunded)

68%

Vall de Uxó (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villarreal III at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.96 · 112 matches

Vall de Uxó away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal III attack 1.71 + Vall de Uxó defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.46

Vall de Uxó attack 0.85 + Villarreal III defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Villarreal III scores more

50%

level

27%

Vall de Uxó scores more

24%

Villarreal III at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Villarreal III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Villarreal III 4–1 Vall de Uxó

Villarreal III beat Vall de Uxó 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 11, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal in Villarreal.

Villarreal III vs Vall de Uxó — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Villarreal III 4–1 Vall de Uxó