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Villarreal III vs Ontinyent 1931 — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Villarreal III
Villarreal III
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ontinyent 1931
Ontinyent 1931
3/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 25Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Villarreal III48%
×Draw26%
Ontinyent 193125%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal III
1.46
Ontinyent 1931
0.97

Villarreal III creates 51% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 51 away

creates per match

Villarreal III
1.71
Ontinyent 1931
0.98

allows per match

Villarreal III
0.96
Ontinyent 1931
1.22

finishing

Villarreal III+0.00on par
Ontinyent 1931+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal III ↓

Ontinyent 1931 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Villarreal III or draw
75%
Villarreal III or Ontinyent 1931
74%
Draw or Ontinyent 1931
52%

Winning margin

Villarreal III wins by 2+
24%
Ontinyent 1931 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Villarreal III 1+ goals
77%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
43%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
18%
Ontinyent 1931 1+ goals
62%
Ontinyent 1931 2+ goals
25%
Ontinyent 1931 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Villarreal III (draw refunded)
66%
Ontinyent 1931 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal III at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.96 · 112 matches

Ontinyent 1931 away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal III attack 1.71 + Ontinyent 1931 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ontinyent 1931 attack 0.98 + Villarreal III defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Villarreal III scores more
48%
level
26%
Ontinyent 1931 scores more
25%

Villarreal III at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Villarreal III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Villarreal III 3–0 Ontinyent 1931

Villarreal III beat Ontinyent 1931 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal in Villarreal.