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Villarreal III vs Novelda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Villarreal III
Villarreal III
CANC
22:00
Novelda
Novelda
5/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 36Ciudad Deportiva Pamesa Cerámica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Villarreal III53%
×Draw24%
Novelda23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal III
1.71
Novelda
1.04

Villarreal III creates 64% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 27 away

creates per match

Villarreal III
1.71
Novelda
1.11

allows per match

Villarreal III
0.96
Novelda
1.70

finishing

Villarreal III+0.00on par
Novelda+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal III ↓

Novelda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Villarreal III or draw
77%
Villarreal III or Novelda
76%
Draw or Novelda
47%

Winning margin

Villarreal III wins by 2+
29%
Novelda wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Villarreal III 1+ goals
82%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
51%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
24%
Novelda 1+ goals
65%
Novelda 2+ goals
28%
Novelda 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Villarreal III (draw refunded)
70%
Novelda (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal III at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.96 · 112 matches

Novelda away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal III attack 1.71 + Novelda defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.71

Novelda attack 1.11 + Villarreal III defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Villarreal III scores more
53%
level
24%
Novelda scores more
23%

Villarreal III at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Villarreal III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villarreal III face Novelda (Tercera División RFEF - Group 6)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 returns with Villarreal III hosting Novelda. Match starts May 2, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Villarreal III host Novelda at Ciudad Deportiva Pamesa Cerámica.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.