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Villarreal III vs Jove Español — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Villarreal III
Villarreal III
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Jove Español
Jove Español
9/15/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 4Ciudad Deportiva Pamesa Cerámica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Villarreal III50%
×Draw27%
Jove Español24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal III
1.46
Jove Español
0.91

Villarreal III creates 60% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 110 away

creates per match

Villarreal III
1.71
Jove Español
0.86

allows per match

Villarreal III
0.96
Jove Español
1.21

finishing

Villarreal III+0.00on par
Jove Español+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal III ↓

Jove Español →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Villarreal III or draw
76%
Villarreal III or Jove Español
73%
Draw or Jove Español
50%

Winning margin

Villarreal III wins by 2+
25%
Jove Español wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Villarreal III 1+ goals
77%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
43%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
18%
Jove Español 1+ goals
60%
Jove Español 2+ goals
23%
Jove Español 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Villarreal III (draw refunded)
68%
Jove Español (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal III at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.96 · 112 matches

Jove Español away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal III attack 1.71 + Jove Español defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.46

Jove Español attack 0.86 + Villarreal III defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Villarreal III scores more
50%
level
27%
Jove Español scores more
24%

Villarreal III at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Villarreal III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villarreal III 4 – 0 Jove Español

Villarreal III beat Jove Español 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Pamesa Cerámica in Villarreal.