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Jove Español vs Villarreal III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Jove Español
Jove Español
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Villarreal III
Villarreal III
3/4/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 20Ciudad Deportiva de San Vicente del Raspeig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Jove Español36%
×Draw28%
Villarreal III36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jove Español
1.17
Villarreal III
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 112 away

creates per match

Jove Español
1.10
Villarreal III
1.38

allows per match

Jove Español
0.94
Villarreal III
1.23

finishing

Jove Español+0.00on par
Villarreal III+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jove Español ↓

Villarreal III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Jove Español or draw
64%
Jove Español or Villarreal III
72%
Draw or Villarreal III
64%

Winning margin

Jove Español wins by 2+
15%
Villarreal III wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jove Español 1+ goals
69%
Jove Español 2+ goals
33%
Jove Español 3+ goals
11%
Villarreal III 1+ goals
69%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
32%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jove Español (draw refunded)
50%
Villarreal III (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jove Español at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.94 · 110 matches

Villarreal III away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jove Español attack 1.10 + Villarreal III defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Villarreal III attack 1.38 + Jove Español defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Jove Español scores more
36%
level
28%
Villarreal III scores more
36%

Jove Español at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Jove Español will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jove Español vs Villarreal III

Jove Español beat Villarreal III 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 4, 2026.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de San Vicente del Raspeig in San Vicente del Raspeig.