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Villarreal II vs Zaragoza — Segunda División 2018

Villarreal II
Villarreal II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zaragoza
Zaragoza
2/24/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 28Estadio de la Cerámica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Villarreal II42%
×Draw28%
Zaragoza30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal II
1.31
Zaragoza
1.07

Villarreal II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 169 away

creates per match

Villarreal II
1.33
Zaragoza
1.01

allows per match

Villarreal II
1.14
Zaragoza
1.30

finishing

Villarreal II+0.00on par
Zaragoza+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal II ↓

Zaragoza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Villarreal II or draw
70%
Villarreal II or Zaragoza
72%
Draw or Zaragoza
58%

Winning margin

Villarreal II wins by 2+
19%
Zaragoza wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Villarreal II 1+ goals
73%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
38%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
14%
Zaragoza 1+ goals
66%
Zaragoza 2+ goals
29%
Zaragoza 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Villarreal II (draw refunded)
58%
Zaragoza (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 42 matches

Zaragoza away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.30 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal II attack 1.33 + Zaragoza defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Zaragoza attack 1.01 + Villarreal II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Villarreal II scores more
42%
level
28%
Zaragoza scores more
30%

Villarreal II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villarreal II vs Zaragoza

Villarreal II and Zaragoza drew 0-0 in Segunda División on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de la Cerámica in Villarreal.