Villarreal II 1–0 Recreativo Huelva: Result & Stats

Villarreal II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Recreativo Huelva

9/22/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Villarreal II55%

×Draw25%

Recreativo Huelva20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villarreal IIExpected goals in this matchRecreativo Huelva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.85

Villarreal II

1.59

Recreativo Huelva

0.85

Villarreal II creates 87% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

1.79

creates per match

0.87

0.84

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Villarreal II

1.79

Recreativo Huelva

0.87

allows per match

Villarreal II

0.84

Recreativo Huelva

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villarreal II+0.00on par

Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal II ↓

Recreativo Huelva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Villarreal II or draw

80%

Villarreal II or Recreativo Huelva

75%

Draw or Recreativo Huelva

45%

Winning margin

Villarreal II wins by 2+

29%

Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Villarreal II 1+ goals

80%

Villarreal II 2+ goals

47%

Villarreal II 3+ goals

21%

Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals

57%

Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals

21%

Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Villarreal II (draw refunded)

73%

Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.84 · 57 matches

Recreativo Huelva away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal II attack 1.79 + Recreativo Huelva defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.59

Recreativo Huelva attack 0.87 + Villarreal II defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Villarreal II scores more

55%

level

25%

Recreativo Huelva scores more

20%

Villarreal II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff