Villarreal II 0–1 Real Murcia: Result & Stats

Villarreal II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Murcia

10/27/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Villarreal II45%

×Draw27%

Real Murcia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villarreal IIExpected goals in this matchReal Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.01

Villarreal II

1.38

Real Murcia

1.01

Villarreal II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 76 away

1.79

creates per match

1.18

0.84

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Villarreal II

1.79

Real Murcia

1.18

allows per match

Villarreal II

0.84

Real Murcia

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villarreal II+0.00on par

Real Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal II ↓

Real Murcia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Villarreal II or draw

72%

Villarreal II or Real Murcia

73%

Draw or Real Murcia

55%

Winning margin

Villarreal II wins by 2+

22%

Real Murcia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Villarreal II 1+ goals

75%

Villarreal II 2+ goals

40%

Villarreal II 3+ goals

16%

Real Murcia 1+ goals

64%

Real Murcia 2+ goals

27%

Real Murcia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Villarreal II (draw refunded)

62%

Real Murcia (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.84 · 57 matches

Real Murcia away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal II attack 1.79 + Real Murcia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.38

Real Murcia attack 1.18 + Villarreal II defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Villarreal II scores more

45%

level

27%

Real Murcia scores more

28%

Villarreal II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff