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Villarreal II vs Real Betis II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Villarreal II
Villarreal II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Betis II
Real Betis II
2/19/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 24Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Villarreal II57%
×Draw24%
Real Betis II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal II
1.70
Real Betis II
0.86

Villarreal II creates 98% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Villarreal II
1.79
Real Betis II
0.89

allows per match

Villarreal II
0.84
Real Betis II
1.60

finishing

Villarreal II+0.00on par
Real Betis II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal II ↓

Real Betis II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Villarreal II or draw
81%
Villarreal II or Real Betis II
76%
Draw or Real Betis II
43%

Winning margin

Villarreal II wins by 2+
32%
Real Betis II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Villarreal II 1+ goals
82%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
51%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
24%
Real Betis II 1+ goals
58%
Real Betis II 2+ goals
21%
Real Betis II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Villarreal II (draw refunded)
75%
Real Betis II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.84 · 57 matches

Real Betis II away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.60 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal II attack 1.79 + Real Betis II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.70

Real Betis II attack 0.89 + Villarreal II defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Villarreal II scores more
57%
level
24%
Real Betis II scores more
19%

Villarreal II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Villarreal II 3–0 Real Betis II

Villarreal II beat Real Betis II 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal in Villarreal.