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Villarreal II vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

Villarreal II
Villarreal II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mirandes
Mirandes
9/3/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 4Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Villarreal II45%
×Draw27%
Mirandes29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal II
1.41
Mirandes
1.07

Villarreal II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 148 away

creates per match

Villarreal II
1.33
Mirandes
1.00

allows per match

Villarreal II
1.14
Mirandes
1.48

finishing

Villarreal II+0.00on par
Mirandes+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal II ↓

Mirandes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Villarreal II or draw
71%
Villarreal II or Mirandes
73%
Draw or Mirandes
55%

Winning margin

Villarreal II wins by 2+
21%
Mirandes wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Villarreal II 1+ goals
76%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
41%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
17%
Mirandes 1+ goals
66%
Mirandes 2+ goals
29%
Mirandes 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Villarreal II (draw refunded)
61%
Mirandes (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 42 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal II attack 1.33 + Mirandes defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.41

Mirandes attack 1.00 + Villarreal II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Villarreal II scores more
45%
level
27%
Mirandes scores more
29%

Villarreal II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Villarreal II 3–0 Mirandes

Villarreal II beat Mirandes 3-0 in Segunda División on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal in Villarreal.