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Villarreal II vs Mérida AD — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Villarreal II
Villarreal II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mérida AD
Mérida AD
3/14/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Villarreal II56%
×Draw25%
Mérida AD20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal II
1.62
Mérida AD
0.85

Villarreal II creates 91% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Villarreal II
1.79
Mérida AD
0.87

allows per match

Villarreal II
0.84
Mérida AD
1.45

finishing

Villarreal II+0.00on par
Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal II ↓

Mérida AD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Villarreal II or draw
80%
Villarreal II or Mérida AD
75%
Draw or Mérida AD
44%

Winning margin

Villarreal II wins by 2+
30%
Mérida AD wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Villarreal II 1+ goals
80%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
48%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
22%
Mérida AD 1+ goals
57%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
21%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Villarreal II (draw refunded)
74%
Mérida AD (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.84 · 57 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal II attack 1.79 + Mérida AD defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.62

Mérida AD attack 0.87 + Villarreal II defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Villarreal II scores more
56%
level
25%
Mérida AD scores more
20%

Villarreal II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Villarreal II 3–0 Mérida AD

Villarreal II beat Mérida AD 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 14, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal in Villarreal.