Villarreal II 0–0 Linense: Result & Stats

Villarreal II

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Linense

5/21/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 37Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Villarreal II60%

×Draw25%

Linense15%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villarreal IIExpected goals in this matchLinense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.66

Villarreal II

1.58

Linense

0.66

Villarreal II creates 139% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.79

creates per match

0.47

0.84

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Villarreal II

1.79

Linense

0.47

allows per match

Villarreal II

0.84

Linense

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villarreal II+0.00on par

Linense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal II ↓

Linense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Villarreal II or draw

85%

Villarreal II or Linense

75%

Draw or Linense

40%

Winning margin

Villarreal II wins by 2+

32%

Linense wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Villarreal II 1+ goals

79%

Villarreal II 2+ goals

47%

Villarreal II 3+ goals

21%

Linense 1+ goals

48%

Linense 2+ goals

14%

Linense 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Villarreal II (draw refunded)

79%

Linense (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.84 · 57 matches

Linense away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal II attack 1.79 + Linense defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.58

Linense attack 0.47 + Villarreal II defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Villarreal II scores more

60%

level

25%

Linense scores more

15%

Villarreal II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

Antonio Pacheco← Álex Forés

62'

65'

71'

Diego Collado← N. Iosifov

71'

Sergi Fernández← A. Coulibaly

77'

S. Leuko← A. Koroma

80'

Jonathan Arriba← Ahn June-Hyuk

88'

Manu Toledano← Leandro Martínez

88'

N. Delmonte← G. Chironi

88'

Víctor Mena← Gerard Oliva

90+3'

90+4'

90+8'

Villarreal

Linense

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Miguel Álvarez

56'▲Antonio Pacheco←▼Álex Forés

71'▲Diego Collado←▼N. Iosifov

80'▲Jonathan Arriba←▼Ahn June-Hyuk

Villarreal II substitutes

PachecoColladoArribaGelardoGianniMedinaGoujónCabreraPascualAlonsoMurria

Manager: Monteagudo

71'▲Sergi Fernández←▼A. Coulibaly

77'▲S. Leuko←▼A. Koroma

88'▲Manu Toledano←▼Leandro Martínez

88'▲N. Delmonte←▼G. Chironi

88'▲Víctor Mena←▼Gerard Oliva

Linense substitutes

FernándezLeukoToledanoDelmonteMenaGarcíaLópezMartínMirás

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Villarreal II 0–0 Linense

Villarreal II and Linense drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal in Villarreal.

Villarreal II vs Linense — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Villarreal II 0–0 Linense