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Villarreal II vs Linares Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Villarreal II
Villarreal II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
4/16/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Villarreal II55%
×Draw23%
Linares Deportivo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal II
1.81
Linares Deportivo
1.04

Villarreal II creates 74% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Villarreal II
1.79
Linares Deportivo
1.24

allows per match

Villarreal II
0.84
Linares Deportivo
1.82

finishing

Villarreal II+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal II ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Villarreal II or draw
78%
Villarreal II or Linares Deportivo
77%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
45%

Winning margin

Villarreal II wins by 2+
31%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Villarreal II 1+ goals
84%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
54%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
27%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
65%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
28%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Villarreal II (draw refunded)
72%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.84 · 57 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal II attack 1.79 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.81

Linares Deportivo attack 1.24 + Villarreal II defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Villarreal II scores more
55%
level
23%
Linares Deportivo scores more
22%

Villarreal II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villarreal II vs Linares Deportivo

Villarreal II beat Linares Deportivo 5-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal in Villarreal.