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Villarreal II vs Juventud Torremolinos — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Villarreal II
Villarreal II
Preview
16:00
Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
11/8/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Estadio de la Ceramica
55%
Villarreal II
model favours
55%24%21%

Juventud Torremolinos win just 10% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Villarreal II55%
×Draw24%
Juventud Torremolinos21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal II
1.69
Juventud Torremolinos
0.95

Villarreal II creates 78% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Villarreal II
1.79
Juventud Torremolinos
1.05

allows per match

Villarreal II
0.84
Juventud Torremolinos
1.58

finishing

Villarreal II+0.00on par
Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal II ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Villarreal II or draw
79%
Villarreal II or Juventud Torremolinos
76%
Draw or Juventud Torremolinos
45%

Winning margin

Villarreal II wins by 2+
30%
Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Villarreal II 1+ goals
82%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
50%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
24%
Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
61%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
25%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Villarreal II (draw refunded)
72%
Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.84 · 57 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal II attack 1.79 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.69

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.05 + Villarreal II defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Villarreal II scores more
55%
level
24%
Juventud Torremolinos scores more
21%

Villarreal II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Villarreal II sit 4, Juventud Torremolinos 15 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
LWDWD
Torremolinos
LLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villarreal II face Juventud Torremolinos (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with Villarreal II hosting Juventud Torremolinos. Match starts November 8, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Villarreal II host Juventud Torremolinos at Estadio de la Ceramica.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.