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Juventud Torremolinos vs Villarreal II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Villarreal II
Villarreal II
11/30/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Campo Municipal El Pozuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Juventud Torremolinos37%
×Draw28%
Villarreal II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Torremolinos
1.20
Villarreal II
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Juventud Torremolinos
1.32
Villarreal II
1.19

allows per match

Juventud Torremolinos
1.11
Villarreal II
1.07

finishing

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par
Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Torremolinos ↓

Villarreal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Juventud Torremolinos or draw
65%
Juventud Torremolinos or Villarreal II
72%
Draw or Villarreal II
63%

Winning margin

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
16%
Villarreal II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
70%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
34%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
12%
Villarreal II 1+ goals
68%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
32%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
52%
Villarreal II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Torremolinos at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.32 + Villarreal II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Villarreal II attack 1.19 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Juventud Torremolinos scores more
37%
level
28%
Villarreal II scores more
35%

Juventud Torremolinos at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Juventud Torremolinos 0 – 3 Villarreal II

Villarreal II beat Juventud Torremolinos 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 30, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Pozuelo in Torremolinos.