Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Villarreal II vs FC Cartagena — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Villarreal II
Villarreal II
Preview
16:00
FC Cartagena
FC Cartagena
10/25/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Estadio de la Ceramica
Big match
56%
Villarreal II
model favours
56%26%18%
1–0
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Villarreal II56%
×Draw26%
FC Cartagena18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal II
1.48
FC Cartagena
0.71

Villarreal II creates 108% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Villarreal II
1.79
FC Cartagena
0.58

allows per match

Villarreal II
0.84
FC Cartagena
1.16

finishing

Villarreal II+0.00on par
FC Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal II ↓

FC Cartagena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Villarreal II or draw
82%
Villarreal II or FC Cartagena
74%
Draw or FC Cartagena
44%

Winning margin

Villarreal II wins by 2+
29%
FC Cartagena wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Villarreal II 1+ goals
77%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
43%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
19%
FC Cartagena 1+ goals
51%
FC Cartagena 2+ goals
16%
FC Cartagena 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Villarreal II (draw refunded)
76%
FC Cartagena (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.84 · 57 matches

FC Cartagena away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal II attack 1.79 + FC Cartagena defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.48

FC Cartagena attack 0.58 + Villarreal II defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Villarreal II scores more
56%
level
26%
FC Cartagena scores more
18%

Villarreal II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
II
LWDWD
Cartagena
DLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Villarreal II host FC Cartagena

October 25, 2026: Villarreal II take on FC Cartagena in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Villarreal II host FC Cartagena at Estadio de la Ceramica.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.