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Villarreal II vs FC Cartagena — Segunda División 2018

Villarreal II
Villarreal II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
FC Cartagena
FC Cartagena
9/2/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 4Estadio de la Cerámica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Villarreal II46%
×Draw26%
FC Cartagena27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal II
1.45
FC Cartagena
1.04

Villarreal II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 105 away

creates per match

Villarreal II
1.33
FC Cartagena
0.95

allows per match

Villarreal II
1.14
FC Cartagena
1.57

finishing

Villarreal II+0.00on par
FC Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal II ↓

FC Cartagena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Villarreal II or draw
73%
Villarreal II or FC Cartagena
74%
Draw or FC Cartagena
54%

Winning margin

Villarreal II wins by 2+
23%
FC Cartagena wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Villarreal II 1+ goals
77%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
42%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
18%
FC Cartagena 1+ goals
65%
FC Cartagena 2+ goals
28%
FC Cartagena 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Villarreal II (draw refunded)
63%
FC Cartagena (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 42 matches

FC Cartagena away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.57 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal II attack 1.33 + FC Cartagena defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

FC Cartagena attack 0.95 + Villarreal II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Villarreal II scores more
46%
level
26%
FC Cartagena scores more
27%

Villarreal II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Villarreal II 1–2 FC Cartagena

FC Cartagena beat Villarreal II 2-1 in Segunda División on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio de la Cerámica in Villarreal.