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Villarreal II vs Antequera — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Villarreal II
Villarreal II
Preview
15:00
Antequera
Antequera
9/20/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Estadio de la Ceramica
50%
Villarreal II
model favours
50%26%24%
1–0
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Villarreal II50%
×Draw26%
Antequera24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal II
1.52
Antequera
0.95

Villarreal II creates 60% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Villarreal II
1.79
Antequera
1.05

allows per match

Villarreal II
0.84
Antequera
1.26

finishing

Villarreal II+0.00on par
Antequera+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal II ↓

Antequera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Villarreal II or draw
76%
Villarreal II or Antequera
74%
Draw or Antequera
50%

Winning margin

Villarreal II wins by 2+
26%
Antequera wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Villarreal II 1+ goals
78%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
45%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
20%
Antequera 1+ goals
61%
Antequera 2+ goals
25%
Antequera 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Villarreal II (draw refunded)
68%
Antequera (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.84 · 57 matches

Antequera away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal II attack 1.79 + Antequera defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.52

Antequera attack 1.05 + Villarreal II defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Villarreal II scores more
50%
level
26%
Antequera scores more
24%

Villarreal II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
II
LWDWD
Antequera
WWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Villarreal II host Antequera

September 20, 2026: Villarreal II take on Antequera in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Villarreal II host Antequera at Estadio de la Ceramica.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.