Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Antequera vs Villarreal II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Antequera
Antequera
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Villarreal II
Villarreal II
9/14/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Estadio El Maulí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Antequera39%
×Draw27%
Villarreal II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antequera
1.31
Villarreal II
1.19

Antequera creates 10% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Antequera
1.54
Villarreal II
1.19

allows per match

Antequera
1.19
Villarreal II
1.07

finishing

Antequera+0.00on par
Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antequera ↓

Villarreal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Antequera or draw
66%
Antequera or Villarreal II
73%
Draw or Villarreal II
61%

Winning margin

Antequera wins by 2+
18%
Villarreal II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Antequera 1+ goals
73%
Antequera 2+ goals
38%
Antequera 3+ goals
14%
Villarreal II 1+ goals
70%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
33%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Antequera (draw refunded)
54%
Villarreal II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antequera at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antequera attack 1.54 + Villarreal II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.31

Villarreal II attack 1.19 + Antequera defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Antequera scores more
39%
level
27%
Villarreal II scores more
34%

Antequera at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Antequera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Antequera vs Villarreal II

Antequera beat Villarreal II 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Maulí in Antequera.