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Villaralbo vs La Virgen del Camino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Villaralbo
Villaralbo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
10/4/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 5Campo Municipal Los Barreros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Villaralbo42%
×Draw29%
La Virgen del Camino30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villaralbo
1.23
La Virgen del Camino
0.99

Villaralbo creates 24% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 111 away

creates per match

Villaralbo
1.02
La Virgen del Camino
1.05

allows per match

Villaralbo
0.92
La Virgen del Camino
1.43

finishing

Villaralbo+0.00on par
La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaralbo ↓

La Virgen del Camino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Villaralbo or draw
70%
Villaralbo or La Virgen del Camino
71%
Draw or La Virgen del Camino
58%

Winning margin

Villaralbo wins by 2+
18%
La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Villaralbo 1+ goals
71%
Villaralbo 2+ goals
35%
Villaralbo 3+ goals
13%
La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
63%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
26%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Villaralbo (draw refunded)
58%
La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villaralbo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.92 · 52 matches

La Virgen del Camino away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.43 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villaralbo attack 1.02 + La Virgen del Camino defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.05 + Villaralbo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Villaralbo scores more
42%
level
29%
La Virgen del Camino scores more
30%

Villaralbo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Villaralbo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Villaralbo 1–0 La Virgen del Camino

Villaralbo beat La Virgen del Camino 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Los Barreros in Villaralbo.