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Villaralbo vs Cultural Leonesa II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Villaralbo
Villaralbo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cultural Leonesa II
Cultural Leonesa II
12/6/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 13Campo Municipal Los Barreros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Villaralbo35%
×Draw30%
Cultural Leonesa II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villaralbo
1.05
Cultural Leonesa II
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 110 away

creates per match

Villaralbo
1.02
Cultural Leonesa II
1.17

allows per match

Villaralbo
0.92
Cultural Leonesa II
1.08

finishing

Villaralbo+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaralbo ↓

Cultural Leonesa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Villaralbo or draw
65%
Villaralbo or Cultural Leonesa II
70%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa II
65%

Winning margin

Villaralbo wins by 2+
14%
Cultural Leonesa II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Villaralbo 1+ goals
65%
Villaralbo 2+ goals
28%
Villaralbo 3+ goals
9%
Cultural Leonesa II 1+ goals
65%
Cultural Leonesa II 2+ goals
28%
Cultural Leonesa II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Villaralbo (draw refunded)
50%
Cultural Leonesa II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villaralbo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.92 · 52 matches

Cultural Leonesa II away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villaralbo attack 1.02 + Cultural Leonesa II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.05

Cultural Leonesa II attack 1.17 + Villaralbo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Villaralbo scores more
35%
level
30%
Cultural Leonesa II scores more
35%

Villaralbo at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Villaralbo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Villaralbo 0–0 Cultural Leonesa II

Villaralbo and Cultural Leonesa II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 6, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Los Barreros in Villaralbo.