Villaralbo 0–1 Bembibre: Result & Stats

Villaralbo

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bembibre

10/18/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 7Campo Municipal Los Barreros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Villaralbo46%

×Draw29%

Bembibre25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VillaralboExpected goals in this matchBembibre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.87

Villaralbo

1.27

Bembibre

0.87

Villaralbo creates 46% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 110 away

1.02

creates per match

0.82

0.92

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Villaralbo

1.02

Bembibre

0.82

allows per match

Villaralbo

0.92

Bembibre

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villaralbo+0.00on par

Bembibre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaralbo ↓

Bembibre →

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Villaralbo or draw

75%

Villaralbo or Bembibre

71%

Draw or Bembibre

54%

Winning margin

Villaralbo wins by 2+

21%

Bembibre wins by 2+

Team goals

Villaralbo 1+ goals

72%

Villaralbo 2+ goals

36%

Villaralbo 3+ goals

14%

Bembibre 1+ goals

58%

Bembibre 2+ goals

22%

Bembibre 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Villaralbo (draw refunded)

64%

Bembibre (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villaralbo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.92 · 52 matches

Bembibre away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.51 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villaralbo attack 1.02 + Bembibre defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bembibre attack 0.82 + Villaralbo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Villaralbo scores more

46%

level

29%

Bembibre scores more

25%

Villaralbo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Villaralbo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff