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Villaralbo vs Becerril Campos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Villaralbo
Villaralbo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Becerril Campos
Becerril Campos
4/12/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 32Campo Municipal Los Barreros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Villaralbo44%
×Draw28%
Becerril Campos28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villaralbo
1.30
Becerril Campos
0.97

Villaralbo creates 34% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 97 away

creates per match

Villaralbo
1.02
Becerril Campos
1.02

allows per match

Villaralbo
0.92
Becerril Campos
1.58

finishing

Villaralbo+0.00on par
Becerril Campos+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaralbo ↓

Becerril Campos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Villaralbo or draw
72%
Villaralbo or Becerril Campos
72%
Draw or Becerril Campos
56%

Winning margin

Villaralbo wins by 2+
20%
Becerril Campos wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Villaralbo 1+ goals
73%
Villaralbo 2+ goals
37%
Villaralbo 3+ goals
14%
Becerril Campos 1+ goals
62%
Becerril Campos 2+ goals
25%
Becerril Campos 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Villaralbo (draw refunded)
61%
Becerril Campos (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villaralbo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.92 · 52 matches

Becerril Campos away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villaralbo attack 1.02 + Becerril Campos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.30

Becerril Campos attack 1.02 + Villaralbo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Villaralbo scores more
44%
level
28%
Becerril Campos scores more
28%

Villaralbo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Villaralbo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villaralbo 1 – 1 Becerril Campos

Villaralbo and Becerril Campos drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Los Barreros in Villaralbo.