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Villaralbo vs Almazán — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Villaralbo
Villaralbo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Almazán
Almazán
3/16/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 25Campo Municipal Los Barreros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Villaralbo41%
×Draw29%
Almazán29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villaralbo
1.18
Almazán
0.95

Villaralbo creates 24% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 113 away

creates per match

Villaralbo
1.02
Almazán
0.97

allows per match

Villaralbo
0.92
Almazán
1.34

finishing

Villaralbo+0.00on par
Almazán+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaralbo ↓

Almazán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Villaralbo or draw
71%
Villaralbo or Almazán
71%
Draw or Almazán
59%

Winning margin

Villaralbo wins by 2+
18%
Almazán wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Villaralbo 1+ goals
69%
Villaralbo 2+ goals
33%
Villaralbo 3+ goals
12%
Almazán 1+ goals
61%
Almazán 2+ goals
25%
Almazán 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Villaralbo (draw refunded)
58%
Almazán (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villaralbo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.92 · 52 matches

Almazán away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villaralbo attack 1.02 + Almazán defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.18

Almazán attack 0.97 + Villaralbo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Villaralbo scores more
41%
level
29%
Almazán scores more
29%

Villaralbo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Villaralbo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villaralbo vs Almazán

Villaralbo and Almazán drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Los Barreros in Villaralbo.