Villanueva Pardillo 0–0 Real Madrid III

Villanueva Pardillo

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Madrid III

2/18/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 21Polideportivo Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Villanueva Pardillo28%

×Draw28%

Real Madrid III43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villanueva PardilloExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.27

Villanueva Pardillo

0.96

Real Madrid III

1.27

Real Madrid III creates 32% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

1.16

creates per match

1.35

1.20

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Villanueva Pardillo

1.16

Real Madrid III

1.35

allows per match

Villanueva Pardillo

1.20

Real Madrid III

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par

Real Madrid III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanueva Pardillo ↓

Real Madrid III →

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Villanueva Pardillo or draw

57%

Villanueva Pardillo or Real Madrid III

72%

Draw or Real Madrid III

72%

Winning margin

Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+

10%

Real Madrid III wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals

62%

Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals

25%

Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals

Real Madrid III 1+ goals

72%

Real Madrid III 2+ goals

36%

Real Madrid III 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)

39%

Real Madrid III (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villanueva Pardillo at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Real Madrid III away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villanueva Pardillo attack 1.16 + Real Madrid III defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.96

Real Madrid III attack 1.35 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Villanueva Pardillo scores more

28%

level

28%

Real Madrid III scores more

43%

Real Madrid III at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff