Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Villanueva Pardillo vs Móstoles CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Villanueva Pardillo
Villanueva Pardillo
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Móstoles CF
Móstoles CF
6/6/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2nd Phase - 10Campo Municipal Juan Manuel Angelina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Villanueva Pardillo41%
×Draw29%
Móstoles CF30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villanueva Pardillo
1.21
Móstoles CF
1.00

Villanueva Pardillo creates 21% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 16 away

creates per match

Villanueva Pardillo
1.16
Móstoles CF
0.81

allows per match

Villanueva Pardillo
1.20
Móstoles CF
1.25

finishing

Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par
Móstoles CF+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanueva Pardillo ↓

Móstoles CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Villanueva Pardillo or draw
70%
Villanueva Pardillo or Móstoles CF
71%
Draw or Móstoles CF
59%

Winning margin

Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+
18%
Móstoles CF wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals
70%
Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals
34%
Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals
12%
Móstoles CF 1+ goals
63%
Móstoles CF 2+ goals
26%
Móstoles CF 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)
57%
Móstoles CF (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villanueva Pardillo at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Móstoles CF away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villanueva Pardillo attack 1.16 + Móstoles CF defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Móstoles CF attack 0.81 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Villanueva Pardillo scores more
41%
level
29%
Móstoles CF scores more
30%

Villanueva Pardillo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Villanueva Pardillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villanueva Pardillo vs Móstoles CF

Villanueva Pardillo beat Móstoles CF 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Juan Manuel Angelina in Villanueva del Pardillo.