Villanueva Pardillo 2–1 Las Rozas: Result & Stats

Villanueva Pardillo

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Las Rozas

4/14/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 29Polideportivo Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Villanueva Pardillo35%

×Draw28%

Las Rozas37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villanueva PardilloExpected goals in this matchLas Rozas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.21

Villanueva Pardillo

1.15

Las Rozas

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 88 away

1.16

creates per match

1.23

1.20

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Villanueva Pardillo

1.16

Las Rozas

1.23

allows per match

Villanueva Pardillo

1.20

Las Rozas

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par

Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanueva Pardillo ↓

Las Rozas →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Villanueva Pardillo or draw

63%

Villanueva Pardillo or Las Rozas

72%

Draw or Las Rozas

65%

Winning margin

Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+

14%

Las Rozas wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals

68%

Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals

32%

Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals

11%

Las Rozas 1+ goals

70%

Las Rozas 2+ goals

34%

Las Rozas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)

48%

Las Rozas (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villanueva Pardillo at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villanueva Pardillo attack 1.16 + Las Rozas defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Las Rozas attack 1.23 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Villanueva Pardillo scores more

35%

level

28%

Las Rozas scores more

37%

Las Rozas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Las Rozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villanueva Pardillo vs Las Rozas

Villanueva Pardillo beat Las Rozas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Polideportivo Adolfo Suárez in Serranillos del Valle.

Villanueva Pardillo vs Las Rozas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Villanueva Pardillo vs Las Rozas