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Villanueva Pardillo vs El Álamo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Villanueva Pardillo
Villanueva Pardillo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
El Álamo
El Álamo
6/20/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2nd Phase - 12Campo Municipal Juan Manuel Angelina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Villanueva Pardillo48%
×Draw26%
El Álamo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villanueva Pardillo
1.50
El Álamo
1.02

Villanueva Pardillo creates 47% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 47 away

creates per match

Villanueva Pardillo
1.16
El Álamo
0.85

allows per match

Villanueva Pardillo
1.20
El Álamo
1.83

finishing

Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par
El Álamo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanueva Pardillo ↓

El Álamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Villanueva Pardillo or draw
74%
Villanueva Pardillo or El Álamo
74%
Draw or El Álamo
52%

Winning margin

Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+
24%
El Álamo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals
78%
Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals
44%
Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals
19%
El Álamo 1+ goals
64%
El Álamo 2+ goals
27%
El Álamo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)
65%
El Álamo (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villanueva Pardillo at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

El Álamo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villanueva Pardillo attack 1.16 + El Álamo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.50

El Álamo attack 0.85 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Villanueva Pardillo scores more
48%
level
26%
El Álamo scores more
26%

Villanueva Pardillo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Villanueva Pardillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villanueva Pardillo 3 – 0 El Álamo

Villanueva Pardillo beat El Álamo 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on June 20, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Juan Manuel Angelina in Villanueva del Pardillo.