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Villanueva Pardillo vs Alcobendas Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Villanueva Pardillo
Villanueva Pardillo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
2/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 18Estadio Municipal Los Pinos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Villanueva Pardillo36%
×Draw27%
Alcobendas Sport37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villanueva Pardillo
1.23
Alcobendas Sport
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 117 away

creates per match

Villanueva Pardillo
1.16
Alcobendas Sport
1.31

allows per match

Villanueva Pardillo
1.20
Alcobendas Sport
1.30

finishing

Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par
Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanueva Pardillo ↓

Alcobendas Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Villanueva Pardillo or draw
63%
Villanueva Pardillo or Alcobendas Sport
73%
Draw or Alcobendas Sport
64%

Winning margin

Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+
15%
Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals
71%
Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals
35%
Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals
13%
Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
71%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
36%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)
49%
Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villanueva Pardillo at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Alcobendas Sport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villanueva Pardillo attack 1.16 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.31 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Villanueva Pardillo scores more
36%
level
27%
Alcobendas Sport scores more
37%

Alcobendas Sport at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Alcobendas Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villanueva Pardillo vs Alcobendas Sport

Alcobendas Sport beat Villanueva Pardillo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Los Pinos in Villanueva del Pardillo.