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Villanueva CF vs Fraga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Villanueva CF
Villanueva CF
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fraga
Fraga
5/2/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Nuevo Enrique Porta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Villanueva CF33%
×Draw26%
Fraga41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villanueva CF
1.23
Fraga
1.42

Fraga creates 15% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 65 away

creates per match

Villanueva CF
0.97
Fraga
1.06

allows per match

Villanueva CF
1.77
Fraga
1.49

finishing

Villanueva CF+0.00on par
Fraga+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanueva CF ↓

Fraga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Villanueva CF or draw
59%
Villanueva CF or Fraga
74%
Draw or Fraga
67%

Winning margin

Villanueva CF wins by 2+
14%
Fraga wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Villanueva CF 1+ goals
71%
Villanueva CF 2+ goals
35%
Villanueva CF 3+ goals
13%
Fraga 1+ goals
76%
Fraga 2+ goals
41%
Fraga 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Villanueva CF (draw refunded)
44%
Fraga (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villanueva CF at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.77 · 31 matches

Fraga away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villanueva CF attack 0.97 + Fraga defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.23

Fraga attack 1.06 + Villanueva CF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Villanueva CF scores more
33%
level
26%
Fraga scores more
41%

Fraga at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fraga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Villanueva CF 0–1 Fraga

Fraga beat Villanueva CF 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on May 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Enrique Porta in Villanueva de Gállego.