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Villanueva CF vs Almudévar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Villanueva CF
Villanueva CF
CANC
00:00
Almudévar
Almudévar
4/23/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 37Estadio Nuevo Enrique Porta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Villanueva CF33%
×Draw28%
Almudévar40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villanueva CF
1.13
Almudévar
1.27

Almudévar creates 12% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 96 away

creates per match

Villanueva CF
0.97
Almudévar
0.77

allows per match

Villanueva CF
1.77
Almudévar
1.29

finishing

Villanueva CF+0.00on par
Almudévar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanueva CF ↓

Almudévar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Villanueva CF or draw
60%
Villanueva CF or Almudévar
72%
Draw or Almudévar
67%

Winning margin

Villanueva CF wins by 2+
13%
Almudévar wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Villanueva CF 1+ goals
68%
Villanueva CF 2+ goals
31%
Villanueva CF 3+ goals
11%
Almudévar 1+ goals
72%
Almudévar 2+ goals
36%
Almudévar 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Villanueva CF (draw refunded)
45%
Almudévar (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villanueva CF at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.77 · 31 matches

Almudévar away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.29 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villanueva CF attack 0.97 + Almudévar defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.13

Almudévar attack 0.77 + Villanueva CF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Villanueva CF scores more
33%
level
28%
Almudévar scores more
40%

Almudévar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Almudévar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villanueva CF vs Almudévar — Match Preview

Villanueva CF face Almudévar on April 23, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Villanueva CF host Almudévar at Estadio Nuevo Enrique Porta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.