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Villanovense vs Trujillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Villanovense
Villanovense
CANC
22:00
Trujillo
Trujillo
5/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 36Estadio Municipal Villanovense

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Villanovense56%
×Draw24%
Trujillo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villanovense
1.70
Trujillo
0.92

Villanovense creates 85% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 92 away

creates per match

Villanovense
2.03
Trujillo
1.03

allows per match

Villanovense
0.81
Trujillo
1.37

finishing

Villanovense+0.00on par
Trujillo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanovense ↓

Trujillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Villanovense or draw
80%
Villanovense or Trujillo
76%
Draw or Trujillo
44%

Winning margin

Villanovense wins by 2+
31%
Trujillo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Villanovense 1+ goals
82%
Villanovense 2+ goals
51%
Villanovense 3+ goals
24%
Trujillo 1+ goals
60%
Trujillo 2+ goals
23%
Trujillo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Villanovense (draw refunded)
73%
Trujillo (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villanovense at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.81 · 31 matches

Trujillo away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villanovense attack 2.03 + Trujillo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.70

Trujillo attack 1.03 + Villanovense defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Villanovense scores more
56%
level
24%
Trujillo scores more
20%

Villanovense at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Villanovense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villanovense face Trujillo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 returns with Villanovense hosting Trujillo. Match starts May 2, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Villanovense host Trujillo at Estadio Municipal Villanovense.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.