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Villanovense vs RCP Valverdeño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Villanovense
Villanovense
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
RCP Valverdeño
RCP Valverdeño
10/27/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 10Estadio Municipal Villanovense

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Villanovense65%
×Draw21%
RCP Valverdeño14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villanovense
1.94
RCP Valverdeño
0.77

Villanovense creates 152% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 46 away

creates per match

Villanovense
2.03
RCP Valverdeño
0.72

allows per match

Villanovense
0.81
RCP Valverdeño
1.85

finishing

Villanovense+0.00on par
RCP Valverdeño+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanovense ↓

RCP Valverdeño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Villanovense or draw
86%
Villanovense or RCP Valverdeño
79%
Draw or RCP Valverdeño
35%

Winning margin

Villanovense wins by 2+
39%
RCP Valverdeño wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Villanovense 1+ goals
86%
Villanovense 2+ goals
58%
Villanovense 3+ goals
30%
RCP Valverdeño 1+ goals
54%
RCP Valverdeño 2+ goals
18%
RCP Valverdeño 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Villanovense (draw refunded)
82%
RCP Valverdeño (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villanovense at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.81 · 31 matches

RCP Valverdeño away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.85 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villanovense attack 2.03 + RCP Valverdeño defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.94

RCP Valverdeño attack 0.72 + Villanovense defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Villanovense scores more
65%
level
21%
RCP Valverdeño scores more
14%

Villanovense at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Villanovense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Villanovense 3–0 RCP Valverdeño

Villanovense beat RCP Valverdeño 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Villanovense in Villanueva de la Serena.