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Villanovense vs Miajadas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Villanovense
Villanovense
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Miajadas
Miajadas
2/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 24Estadio Municipal Villanovense

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Villanovense60%
×Draw23%
Miajadas17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villanovense
1.74
Miajadas
0.79

Villanovense creates 120% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 57 away

creates per match

Villanovense
2.03
Miajadas
0.77

allows per match

Villanovense
0.81
Miajadas
1.46

finishing

Villanovense+0.00on par
Miajadas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanovense ↓

Miajadas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Villanovense or draw
83%
Villanovense or Miajadas
77%
Draw or Miajadas
40%

Winning margin

Villanovense wins by 2+
34%
Miajadas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Villanovense 1+ goals
82%
Villanovense 2+ goals
52%
Villanovense 3+ goals
25%
Miajadas 1+ goals
55%
Miajadas 2+ goals
19%
Miajadas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Villanovense (draw refunded)
78%
Miajadas (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villanovense at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.81 · 31 matches

Miajadas away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.46 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villanovense attack 2.03 + Miajadas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.74

Miajadas attack 0.77 + Villanovense defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Villanovense scores more
60%
level
23%
Miajadas scores more
17%

Villanovense at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Villanovense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Villanovense 2–0 Miajadas

Villanovense beat Miajadas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Villanovense in Villanueva de la Serena.