Villanovense 0–1 Melilla: Result & Stats

Villanovense

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Melilla

1/31/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 12Estadio Municipal Villanovense

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Villanovense38%

×Draw32%

Melilla29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VillanovenseExpected goals in this matchMelilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.83

Villanovense

1.00

Melilla

0.83

Villanovense creates 20% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

0.92

creates per match

1.00

0.67

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Villanovense

0.92

Melilla

1.00

allows per match

Villanovense

0.67

Melilla

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villanovense+0.00on par

Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villanovense ↓

Melilla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Villanovense or draw

71%

Villanovense or Melilla

68%

Draw or Melilla

62%

Winning margin

Villanovense wins by 2+

15%

Melilla wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Villanovense 1+ goals

63%

Villanovense 2+ goals

26%

Villanovense 3+ goals

8%

Melilla 1+ goals

56%

Melilla 2+ goals

20%

Melilla 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Villanovense (draw refunded)

57%

Melilla (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villanovense at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Melilla away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villanovense attack 0.92 + Melilla defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Melilla attack 1.00 + Villanovense defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Villanovense scores more

38%

level

32%

Melilla scores more

29%

Villanovense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Villanovense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff