Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Villalonga vs Betanzos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Villalonga
Villalonga
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Betanzos
Betanzos
5/1/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Estadio Novo San Pedro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Villalonga38%
×Draw28%
Betanzos34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villalonga
1.22
Betanzos
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Villalonga
1.12
Betanzos
0.91

allows per match

Villalonga
1.35
Betanzos
1.32

finishing

Villalonga+0.00on par
Betanzos+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villalonga ↓

Betanzos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Villalonga or draw
66%
Villalonga or Betanzos
72%
Draw or Betanzos
62%

Winning margin

Villalonga wins by 2+
16%
Betanzos wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Villalonga 1+ goals
70%
Villalonga 2+ goals
34%
Villalonga 3+ goals
12%
Betanzos 1+ goals
68%
Betanzos 2+ goals
31%
Betanzos 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Villalonga (draw refunded)
53%
Betanzos (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villalonga at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Betanzos away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villalonga attack 1.12 + Betanzos defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Betanzos attack 0.91 + Villalonga defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Villalonga scores more
38%
level
28%
Betanzos scores more
34%

Villalonga at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Villalonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Villalonga 0–3 Betanzos

Betanzos beat Villalonga 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Novo San Pedro in Sanxenxo.