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Villalonga vs Alondras — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Villalonga
Villalonga
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Alondras
Alondras
4/17/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Estadio Novo San Pedro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Villalonga35%
×Draw27%
Alondras37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villalonga
1.21
Alondras
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

creates per match

Villalonga
1.12
Alondras
1.15

allows per match

Villalonga
1.35
Alondras
1.30

finishing

Villalonga+0.00on par
Alondras+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villalonga ↓

Alondras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Villalonga or draw
63%
Villalonga or Alondras
73%
Draw or Alondras
65%

Winning margin

Villalonga wins by 2+
15%
Alondras wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Villalonga 1+ goals
70%
Villalonga 2+ goals
34%
Villalonga 3+ goals
12%
Alondras 1+ goals
71%
Alondras 2+ goals
36%
Alondras 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Villalonga (draw refunded)
49%
Alondras (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villalonga at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Alondras away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villalonga attack 1.12 + Alondras defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Alondras attack 1.15 + Villalonga defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Villalonga scores more
35%
level
27%
Alondras scores more
37%

Alondras at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Alondras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Villalonga 2–1 Alondras

Villalonga beat Alondras 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Novo San Pedro in Sanxenxo.