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Villalbés vs Paiosaco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Villalbés
Villalbés
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Paiosaco
Paiosaco
2/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Estadio Municipal A Magdalena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Villalbés56%
×Draw24%
Paiosaco20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villalbés
1.68
Paiosaco
0.90

Villalbés creates 87% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 63 away

creates per match

Villalbés
1.49
Paiosaco
0.97

allows per match

Villalbés
0.83
Paiosaco
1.86

finishing

Villalbés+0.00on par
Paiosaco+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villalbés ↓

Paiosaco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Villalbés or draw
80%
Villalbés or Paiosaco
76%
Draw or Paiosaco
44%

Winning margin

Villalbés wins by 2+
31%
Paiosaco wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Villalbés 1+ goals
81%
Villalbés 2+ goals
50%
Villalbés 3+ goals
24%
Paiosaco 1+ goals
59%
Paiosaco 2+ goals
23%
Paiosaco 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Villalbés (draw refunded)
74%
Paiosaco (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villalbés at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.83 · 93 matches

Paiosaco away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villalbés attack 1.49 + Paiosaco defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.68

Paiosaco attack 0.97 + Villalbés defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Villalbés scores more
56%
level
24%
Paiosaco scores more
20%

Villalbés at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Villalbés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Villalbés 1–1 Paiosaco

Villalbés and Paiosaco drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal A Magdalena in Villalba.