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Villajoyosa vs Valencia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Villajoyosa
Villajoyosa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Valencia II
Valencia II
11/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 9Ciudad Deportiva Lloret Calista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Villajoyosa25%
×Draw29%
Valencia II46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villajoyosa
0.84
Valencia II
1.25

Valencia II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 18 away

creates per match

Villajoyosa
0.75
Valencia II
0.94

allows per match

Villajoyosa
1.56
Valencia II
0.94

finishing

Villajoyosa+0.00on par
Valencia II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villajoyosa ↓

Valencia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Villajoyosa or draw
54%
Villajoyosa or Valencia II
71%
Draw or Valencia II
75%

Winning margin

Villajoyosa wins by 2+
8%
Valencia II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Villajoyosa 1+ goals
57%
Villajoyosa 2+ goals
21%
Villajoyosa 3+ goals
5%
Valencia II 1+ goals
71%
Valencia II 2+ goals
36%
Valencia II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Villajoyosa (draw refunded)
35%
Valencia II (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villajoyosa at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Valencia II away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villajoyosa attack 0.75 + Valencia II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.84

Valencia II attack 0.94 + Villajoyosa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Villajoyosa scores more
25%
level
29%
Valencia II scores more
46%

Valencia II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Valencia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Villajoyosa 0–1 Valencia II

Valencia II beat Villajoyosa 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 17, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Lloret Calista in La Vila Joiosa.