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Villajoyosa vs Silla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Villajoyosa
Villajoyosa
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Silla
Silla
1/19/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 16Ciudad Deportiva Lloret Calista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Villajoyosa36%
×Draw27%
Silla37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villajoyosa
1.27
Silla
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 78 away

creates per match

Villajoyosa
0.75
Silla
1.00

allows per match

Villajoyosa
1.56
Silla
1.79

finishing

Villajoyosa+0.00on par
Silla+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villajoyosa ↓

Silla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Villajoyosa or draw
63%
Villajoyosa or Silla
73%
Draw or Silla
64%

Winning margin

Villajoyosa wins by 2+
16%
Silla wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Villajoyosa 1+ goals
72%
Villajoyosa 2+ goals
36%
Villajoyosa 3+ goals
14%
Silla 1+ goals
72%
Silla 2+ goals
37%
Silla 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Villajoyosa (draw refunded)
50%
Silla (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villajoyosa at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Silla away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villajoyosa attack 0.75 + Silla defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.27

Silla attack 1.00 + Villajoyosa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Villajoyosa scores more
36%
level
27%
Silla scores more
37%

Silla at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Silla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Villajoyosa 0–3 Silla

Silla beat Villajoyosa 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 19, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Lloret Calista in La Vila Joiosa.